Driving past the Tate Gallery recently, I was surprised and delighted to see the words "Everything is going to be alright" in neon lights above the pediment.

Well, perhaps. The thing that is certain is that we need to maintain a positive outlook to see beyond much of the daily diet of gloom so prominent in the media.

As the economy edges out of recession, we are not out of the woods.  The CBI believes that we will avoid double dip recession but for some time any recovery may not feel much better than recession. The private sector has become leaner and meaner but paradoxically it is predicted that business failures may increase as the economy recovers over the next couple of years.  The public sector too is in line to be squeezed and unemployment may continue to rise for some time.

A crisis is a turning point or moment of decision.  It is characterised by uncertainty and the need to move beyond situations that can no longer be sustained.  The question is how we will deal with deal with the emerging situation.

As yet we cannot see how the world will unfold. And while the instinct is to batten down the hatches to ride out the storm, this is a time to prepare ourselves to be ready for what may follow. 

We need to keep an open mind and not cling to the wreckage.  We cannot expect things to continue in the way have for the last five years. 

Of necessity, new models of working will emerge.  We’ve seen it before in the 1980s and 1990s – the birth of interim and project work, the demise of expensive corporate service departments - training, pensions, legal -  and the growth of outsourced admin IT, recruitment and even whole HR departments.

Incremental change will not do it.  We must expect restructuring in many organisations - not only mergers and acquisitions but demergers and spin-offs of non-core or unsustainable activities.  This will mean culture change that will often not be comfortable but also opportunities to refocus, to specialise and reassert core strengths.

To grasp the future, we need to be alert and watchful.  We need to take on board what is actually happening rather than wishing for something else.  We need to observe and reflect on new patterns as they emerge.  We need to use our imagination and be open to opportunities.

This kind of readiness is just as important at the individual level.  But that is a story for another day.

Jo Ouston
January 2010